If You Play With Fire…

…or why I feel kinda sorry for Nicola Sturgeon.


It has become generally accepted that while Yes lost the #IndyRef, in the end the SNP won. They’ve had a Massive boost in membership, a new leader to replace an increasingly divisive one and a promise of a stronger Scottish Parliament. On top of that, Labour are in turmoil and in the middle of a long drawn-out Leadership contest. What can possibly go wrong? Well…

This video shows three Renfrewshire SNP councillors burning a copy of the Smith Commission Report, which is barely a week old. When the report was released, the SNP were quick to denounce it as a betrayal to the almighty Vow – in a “People who support Independence don’t support not-Independence” shock. That’s to be expected and it would be absolutely astounding if Nicola Sturgeon stood up and said, “Aye, fair enough. We’ll pack it in now”.
But this is different. This isn’t just asking why further powers weren’t devolved, or denouncing the Commission as a stitch-up. This video shows a group of elected representatives burning a publication that is highly political in a (still) highly-charged situation. “The 45” still wear their defeat with pride. The word ‘traitor’ is still banded about freely. Saltires still wave defiantly in front-gardens (although, I regret to report, Duggy Dug seems to have gone to stay in a farm in the country).

When Nicola Sturgeon began her tenure as First Minister, she said that she wanted to unite Scotland. Last week she unveiled a fairly impressive and ambitious Programme for Government over the next 12/18 months. This will take work and supreme leadership, and as leader of the largest political party in Scotland (and 3rd biggest in the UK), she should have the power behind her to do it.
Except, in the 2 and a bit months since the 18th September, SNP membership is up c.250%…and there is only one reason those people can have joined the country’s largest pro-independence party at this particular time, and it ain’t Land Reform. Most of those members want another referendum. forget the Edinburgh Agreement, that’s void now. It’s a fact that amuses me, but 6% of people who voted Yes in September signed a petition demanding a “re-vote” because they thought the referendum was rigged. I am willing to bet that most of these people are now members of the SNP.
We can see that the SNP’s focus hasn’t moved away from Independence – SNPFest 2014 at The Hydro talked about little else. There is a very clear reason for that: the SNP is now a ‘fundamentalist’ party. The pendulum between the Salmond gradualists (who seek to achieve independence over a longer-term by slowly gaining more and more power from Westminster) and the fundamentalists (who adopt a much more ‘Indy-or-Die’ approach) has swung firmly in favour of the latter in terms of numbers. To even suggest that the referendum not be run again, or that independence won’t happen soon is heresy. There is a reason Stewart Hosie addressed the masses and not Keith Brown.

Which all, of course, brings us back to the binder-burning councillors. I am not outraged at what they did. I am not appalled, or disgusted, or shocked. I’m just stupefied. Four Elected representatives of Scotland’s governing party had the following though process and believed it to be perfectly normal:

1) I could burn a copy of the Smith Report outside Council HQ.
2) That would be a good idea.
3) I could put YesScotland and SNP stuff around it.
4) I’ll need to get someone to film it though. Put it on YouTube.
5) Where’s the lighter?
6) Nothing can possibly go wrong.

It’s incredibly obvious what Nicola Sturgeon should do with the people involved. They should be ‘sacked’ from the party. They should be denounced as silly people who do not represent the official views of the SNP and their actions are not condoned. Sturgeon should do that – but could she? These councillors (who are, worryingly, pre-#Indyref members) probably represent the views of many, many members of the party. Can a new leader risk slapping down this fundamentalist faction so harshly so soon? This, not government policy, could be the first big decision of her leadership.

Personally, I think she should go for it and stamp her authority all over the party: Those who make trouble, pull stunts and denounce everyone who disagrees with the SNP line as traitors are not welcome. There wouldn’t be a rebellion, there’d be a realisation! What a signal that would be, and it would prevent so many problems down the line.  Remember the UKIP guy who said that silly thingno the other oneNO, the other oneNO THE OTHER OTHER ONE! Just as UKIP have become the “We Could Never Say This in Any Other Party” Party in England, the SNP risk becoming the “FREEDOOOOM” Party – an image they had to do so much to successfully shake off. If Nicola stamps down now, there is a chance people will listen and she will regain the momentum. If she hesitates, the pendulum will swing too far to reclaim, and the fundamentalists may well have their time in power.


I am pleased to report that for the first time I came up with 2 potential titles for a blog post that I was happy with. In the end, I went the one with more angles, but I reserve the right to switch it to “The Smith Commission Heats Up…” at any time.

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